Friday, January 18, 2019

Fantasy Scenario 1968-1973

At the start of 1968, Nasser and his inner circle received some unusual visitors. Alien beings secretly arrived with an unusual proposal. They were willing to give Egypt weapons more advanced than any others at the time, and in lavish abundance. All they asked in return was Cairo's full cooperation, to ensure it made the best use of the weapons.

To meet Egypt's air defense needs, the aliens would supply 120 MIG-31 fighters and 200 SU-27s, plus a few dozen modern SAM batteries. For ground attack missions, Egypt would get 250 SU-25s.

The Egyptian Army was to receive 2,000 T-72 tanks modernized to Soviet standards c 1987, plus 2,000 T-80s. It would also get 1,000 pieces of artillery like those sold by Austria to Iraq in the '80s, several thousand modern APCs, 4,000 TOW launchers, many thousands of good trucks, RPGs etc. The aliens were to provide ample spare parts, replacements and ammunition, first for training on all systems and then enough for ten weeks of peak intensity fighting.

To facilitate the crossing of the canal, the ETs sent bridges, boats and ferries similar to those actually used (although Egyptian engineers basically need no help in this area).

Lastly, to deter Israeli use of nuclear weapons, Cairo was to receive 20 medium range ballistic missiles with 300 kiloton warheads.

All of the new gear arrived in Egypt from the spring of 1968 to the fall of 1969. The country had 4-5 years to get ready for war.

In exchange for the armament, Cairo was keep the deliveries as secret as possible, and concentrate on training and absorbing the weapons. There was to be no war of attrition. Egypt was to break its close relations with the USSR, which it no longer needed anyway, and feign an inability to fight. As part of the deception, diplomacy was to be emphasized, however futile.

The aliens delivered weapons at night to Egyptian camps and bases via giant, silent craft with exteriors designed to absorb both light and radar (i.e. practically invisible). All Egyptians receiving the new equipment were warned to keep quiet. There was never any public announcement of deliveries, just deceptive complaints about old gear. New aircraft were to be kept in aircraft shelters (when not in use) while older ones were either sold to foreign governments or kept in plain sight. New tanks were hidden by camouflage netting when satellites passed over. Most training took place west of the Nile, not near the Suez canal or the Mediterranean.

Some security breaches were inevitable. But when a MOSSAD agent reported that creatures from another planet were supplying Egypt with advanced arms, he was forced into retirement. Generally, MOSSAD and the CIA analysts tended to dismiss reports of an arms buildup, because there was no evidence of weapons being unloaded at Alexandria or flown in from other nations.

Syria meanwhile, had become the USSR's number one Mideast client and recipient of arms aid. Deliveries were substantially greater than in real life because the Soviets no longer sent anything to Egypt. Without divulging its source of arms, Cairo assured Syria that it was more than capable of fighting Israel effectively.

Finally on October 6, 1973 Egypt and Syria struck. How would the October war have gone, with Syria and particularly Egypt far better armed than in real life?

Below, modern Soviet armor for Cairo, compliments of ET

Friday, January 11, 2019

Post 1973 Uniforms















The above pic, taken in April 1979, shows Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin in Egypt, reviewing troops. Note the goose stepping officer (judging by his medals probably a hero of the October war). Note also the uniforms of the soldiers. Their helmets look like WWII German helmets.
Cairo's new style contrasts with that of the '73 war, when Egyptian dress was rather plain. In part that reflected the quasi egalitarianism of a socialist state under Soviet influence. Apparently, increased pride after the war, and an end to Soviet ways, caused the shift in style. Partly in defiance of the Soviets, the Egyptians of the late '70s began to relate more to their old enemies, the militarily proficient Germans. Hence the goose stepping and old headgear.
But with regard to this specific occasion, more may have been involved. Knowing that Begin was in nazi-occupied Europe during WWII, the Egyptians probably intended he see something which brought back bad memories and even proved a bit intimidating. With their German-style uniforms and helmets, the new Egyptian army may have sought to convey a subtle message: even though there's now peace, just like your old enemies we're now confident and capable.

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Panic 1973















There have been many accounts of the October war from an Israeli, Egyptian or American perspective. Not many have been written from a Russian perspective. There is, however, a notable example of the latter. Published about a decade ago, Primakov's book (above) gives the Soviet version of events. Among other things, it casts doubt on Sadat's sanity.
Many times, I and others have painted Sadat as inept, and prone to err. His delusional thinking led to the October 14 attack, the refusal to send forces back to the west bank of the canal, the rejection of  Kosygin's cease fire request and the senseless squandering of the 25th brigade. To this awful record, Primakov's book may add something:















If this account is true, it is a grave indictment of the Egyptian President. How could he have been that clueless? Surely there was a misunderstanding--when he said "surrounded by Israeli tanks" he was referring not to Cairo, but the Third Army? Or did the expansion of the Israeli bridgehead at the end of the war, to a point fairly close to Cairo, cause "a clearly panicked Sadat" to lose his mind?
In light of Egypt's break with the USSR after 1973, this whole episode might be a Soviet invention, to discredit Sadat. He himself claimed that Shazli had suffered a breakdown around October 19--a claim rejected not only by Shazly but Gamasy. But in view of Sadat's delusional thinking during the war and the desperate circumstances at the end, I consider the Soviet version slightly more probable.