A Secret Deal

According to a recent report, Iran's oil output, which has been steadily increasing this year, is poised to reach 3.4 million barrels a day by the end of the summer. Essentially, Iran will be producing at peak capacity. In view of US sanctions, that's odd, and suspicious. But it mirrors a harsh dilemma facing the US.

Lately OPEC states, led by Saudi Arabia, have cut production to maximize prices. This move alarmed the US, as it raised the specter of worse inflation. Knowing higher prices at the pump would spark a general round of price hikes, Biden was desperate to prevent this. For him, the economic and political consequences could be ruinous. More inflation would mean higher interest rates and that would lead to recession. A major economic downturn by 2024 could not be more poorly timed...Inevitably, Biden would lose support, enabling Trump to reenter the White House. To avert this disaster, Biden needed more oil on the market, a bigger supply to hold down prices. Where could he get it? OPEC states wouldn't break ranks and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has already been depleted too much. There was only one source of real help. Ironically it is the very state the US has strongly opposed for decades.

Suddenly, Iran found itself in a strong position. For years the US severely curtailed its oil output. Now Washington did an about face... Considering the degree to which Iran has been "quietly flooding the markets with oil" in recent months, despite official sanctions, there must have been a secret deal. Biden realized he had to get Iranian oil flowing again even if Tehran made no concessions. He needed Iranian oil sales as much as Tehran did. Sanctions were de facto lifted. Iran won the waiting game. Why negotiate for a revival of the JCPOA, or curtail its nuclear program, if it has regained the economic fruit already? Iran again has substantial revenues to use in ways the US dislikes, like building its military and backing Assad. This is a humiliation for the US, but there was no alternative. It was either give in to Tehran or see the mercurial Trump back in power. America's economic vulnerability put Iran in the driver's seat.

Of course for political reasons the deal has to be secret. Biden can't be seen as "appeasing Iran." Hence, both sides maintain the facade of hostility with rhetoric and occasional action.

Helianthus flowers again

This past July was the wettest on record. We got 13.93 inches of rain, over treble the normal amount (4.17 inches). The start of August, however, has been dry and pleasant. Good weather coincided with the appearance of sunflowers. These bloomed some weeks later in Vernon CT:

This year's Vernon crop is comparable to last year's show there. The former Manchester garden was also good:

Adddendum, August 12. I just saw a nice Velvet Queen: