Wednesday, May 01, 2013

Suspicious Israeli Claims


The book Israeli Mirage and Nesher Aces includes a list of jet losses and the cause of each loss. In October 1973, six Mirage IIIs and Neshers went down on the Syrian front. One was a casualty of fuel exhaustion. Two are said to have been felled by SAMs and three by AAA (anti-aircraft artillery). Surprisingly, and suspiciously, not one Mirage or Nesher loss is attributed to a Syrian MIG. That does not appear plausible, for two reasons. First, the Israelis lost one Mirage in the dogfight of September 13, 1973, in which they downed 12 MIG-21s. On at least one previous occasion, in 1970, a Syrian pilot got a Mirage. In the October war, well over 100 Syrian jets were shot down, more than the total lost between the wars. In view of the earlier kill ratios, it is hard to believe no Israeli Mirages or Neshers were knocked down by a Syrian jet. This seems all the more unlikely given Pollack's conclusion, in Arabs at War, that in 1973 Syrian pilots downed more jets than the Egyptians. Three Mirage/Neshers succumbed to EAF pilots in the October war, one to a MIG-17 and two to MIG-21s. How could the Syrians, who, according to Pollack, engaged in more air battles than the Egyptians and scored more kills, have failed to shoot down a single Mirage or Nesher?
What seems particularly suspicious is the Israeli claim that AAA killed three Mirage/Neshers over Syria. Anti-aircraft artillery is far more likely to be the nemesis of ground attack aircraft than an air superiority fighter like the Mirage. The latter is more likely to fall prey to enemy interceptors. In fact Damascus credited its warplanes with the kills. According to the Syrian version, on October 7, Lahav, an Israeli pilot, was blasted out of the sky by a MIG-21, and Mirages flown by Roke'ach, Karmi and Lanir were similarly downed by the SAF. At least three of those losses coincided with Syrian air to air  claims. Lahav, Roke'ach and Karmi were almost certainly downed by MIGs.
Israeli airmen probably falsified the cause of some losses to avoid the disgrace of being shot down by  Arab pilots. Why then, did they admit any losses in air to air combat? In some cases it was undeniable. The September 1973 battle was fought over the Mediterranean, so AAA couldn't have been a factor. The Arabs also had proof in some cases, such as the famous film of an Israeli jet in flames, seen through the gunsight of an Egyptian MIG.