Caesar and first Bloom
 |
My bust of Augustus Caesar. I've long considered Augustus to be one of history's greatest statesmen. The bust is one of my more recent acquisitions. For some time, I've been using an earlier pic of it as a profile picture in online groups.
This is my first sunflower to bloom this year. It is the top flower of a continuous bloomer. Yesterday we got torrential rain. Good thing blue skies and sun greeted it this morning.
posted by starman at 8:03 AM
37 Comments:
Caesar Augustus was certainly a great emperor. He had many building projects implemented, including the construction of the Forum of Augustus, which included the Temple of Mars Ultor. Rome expanded its territory substantially during the reign of Caesar Augustus. Lands in the Iberian peninsula were annexed, as well as territories in Southeastern Europe, i.e. lands that are now Croatia and Serbia.
Hi Neal. I think the main achievement of Augustus was to establish a stable empire, in part by quietly replacing the republic with the principle.
Squirrels continue to be a problem here. Only a short while after I took that pic, a squirrel almost wrecked the sunflower plant! Luckily its stalk wasn’t broken and I got it upright again.
June 30, 2018
I'm glad that you got that sunflower upright. There are also a lot of squirrels in my area.
You're right; Augustus established a stable empire. He ranks as one of the excellent Roman emperors. As we know, Marcus Aurelius, Hadrian, Trajan, and Claudius were also very competent.
Again, the sunflower looked nice in morning sun. It's still the only bloom, but more will appear, elsewhere in the patch and lower down on its stalk. It's a continuous bloomer.
There's a heat wave underway here. Tomorrow, Sunday, the forecast calls for a high of 100 degrees F.
Augustus marked the onset of the Pax Romana. Some time ago, there was a discussion as to when it ended. Some say 180 CE, but that's too early IMO. The year 193 is better and 235 is also reasonable.
June 30, 2018
According to wiki, Egypt now has 1,130 M1s, and over 1,700 M-60s! (Most of the older, Soviet produced armor is in storage.) You mentioned T-90S tanks as a replacement for M-60s. But only 500 are to be built.
If Egypt really had its way, do you think it would purchase large numbers of SU-35 or T-50 jets, and T-14 Armata tanks too? Maybe those systems could be built in Egypt. :) The T-90 may be getting old but even a limited number will give Egypt experience with modern Russian armor.
I wonder: if Iran is eclipsed by economic pressure, so the Saudis no longer fear it, might they focus again on Israel? And underwrite major new purchases by Cairo? For now, that sounds like wishful thinking.
It's remarkable that Sinai has seen such a deadly, prolonged terrorist movement. I thought it was desert with no place to hide. Vietnam was largely jungle, but not Sinai. Anyway it's good to hear the "caliphate" is losing.
July 3, 2018
Hey how are you doing?
Well, regarding Sinai insurgency, there are many factors to be taken into consideration. It took quite a lot of blood shed and death for outposts to become more fortified and having modern surveillance equipment taking a bigger role.
ISIS have many hideouts and I doubt that its in El Arish region only. Unfortunately getting an accurate picture is a bit tough given the propaganda machine of the army as well as ISIS which means we would have to put the pieces of the puzzle together.
For now, ISIS is relatively dormant and just relies on IED attacks / in town assassinations of collaborators or known security personnel. Oh, and sniping attacks, no more large raid operations.
https://egypt.liveuamap.com/en/2018/6-july-by-the-morning-the-air-force-support-of-f16-fighter
Pretty sure they have some local support and hiding in the mountains/ underground.
I'm fine thank you. :)
It didn't take the SAA long to overcome the FSA around Daraa. The Syrian flag was raised at the Jordanian border. A Syrian guy in another board says his heart thinks the civil war will be all over in 2019, but his brain says 2020.
Someone said that by busing rebels to Idlib they're only postponing the problem. But it's an effective tactic. Instead of forcing rebels to fight to the death, let them go in exchange for important territory. Eventually, they'll have to deal with them in Idlib but how can rebel morale be high after their failures elsewhere?
I wonder if ISIS could've given the Israelis as much trouble if they were occupying Sinai. Too bad ISIS wasn't there back in 1967-73, lol.
July 8, 2018
Highly doubt they would have been that effective- perhaps if they had a time a machine and took with them the tech and expertise they have (former Hamas) they could do some damage.
I believe Trump's administration was prepared to sacrifice their "allies" anyway and they were just beating chest in front of camera as usual. Actually, look at what happened to the SAA and the poor rusky mercenaries when they tried to attack Kurdish/American positions.
Never thought I would live to see a T-72 with Russian crew get totally smoked by the USAF.
BTW, what do you think of this book? "Arab Mig-19 and Mig-21 Units In Combat" by David Nicolle and Tom Cooper.?
Yup, according to it EAF MIG 19s did get air to air kill(s).
But I am quite interested to learn more about the 17's combat experience during the conflict.
BTW, I think I found a skeleton in your closet (T-50). I can imagine your wife/GF/partner coming back home to find you in bed with a T-50 and you are all like "WAIT! I CAN EXPLAIN! SHE IS THE ARAB'S LAST HOPE TO COUNTER IAF AERIAL DOMINANCE"
Lol sorry I just couldnt help it, You have been mentioning that plane since the days of Iran defense forum LOL.
Regarding the tanks, I believe that 500 T-90S would be some sort of initial order just like what happened with the Rafales when we later ordered another batch.
I really not sure about the T-14 Armata and the Russian weapons are quite..unpredictable. Still, I would buy the new AK-15s and RPK-16s as well ATGMs at a moment's notice :D
Perhaps with the US-Russia's somewhat renewed cold war (more like a friendly chess game) Egypt would gain much by trying to get out of US' sphere of dominance but again, as long as a nation controls our war effort at a strategic level- then we will never be truly independent. Big difference when USA stops sending hellfire missiles than 5.56 by 45 ammunition, or hand pistols compared to necessary components for M1A1 production lines.
Anyways regarding the FSA,I am surprised you didnt get their mentality. Think of it from a perspective of 4th of July American insurgent fighting for his freedom (or whatever ideology) and would rather give his life than live again under the brits. But to your credit, not all rebel factions held the same view as some tried to surrender/surrendered or defected at the initial stages of the battle...leading to the factions with stronger resolve to attack them and seize their armaments.
In Daraa the SAA lost a number of T-72s due to TOWs and possibly other means while according to Syria Live Map, in the West of Daraa the rebels carried out a counterattack which lead to heavy casualties on the regime's side and losing a position to the rebels.
One thing for sure, Battle for Daraa will be brutal and nasty.
Anyways, In Idlib, ISIS sleeper cells are like Hydra from Marvel, cut a head and two more pop out, assassinating members of FSA factions and HTS (Alqaeda branch in Syria). Meanwhile, JTS (Jaish Tahrir Syria) is back to fighting against HTS.....I am just waiting for the Turks to move in Idlib and secure it.
According to the website, they already established several outposts in Idlib. Most likely part of a "shadow agreement" between them, SAA, Russians and POSSIBLY USA.
I've had ARAB MIG-19 AND MIG-21 UNITS IN COMBAT for a long time. It's interesting and seems objective, but the ARAB MIGs series has a lot more information and purportedly, more up to date views. An example is the chapter entitled "The Myths of October 14." It denies the army offensive that day was the very big, costly battle it was long thought to be. Egyptian tank losses were actually far less. I note the Israeli who wrote THE EGYPTIAN STRATEGY FOR THE YOM KIPPUR WAR agrees.
Chapter 6 also says the October 14 air battle, supposedly a great victory for the EAF, has been overhyped. ARAB MIG-19 AND MIG-21 UNITS IN COMBAT says the 14th was the day of Egypt's "greatest aerial victories." But ARAB MIGS says far fewer Israeli jets attacked than was previously thought, and at most two were downed, not the four claimed elsewhere.
The ARAB MIGs volumes also have detailed accounts of EAF MIG-17s in action, some of them in Syria. That's where al-Gindi was stationed.
Cooper appears sympathetic to the arabs and favors their version of the EAF operation at Ras Nasrani on October 6. He pointed out that the Israelis have only shown wreckage from one EAF jet, even though more of those they claimed to have killed should have come down on land.
I saw a video taken by Israeli vacationers in that area showing a MIG-21 falling into water after being hit by a Phantom.
Lol, yeah, I've been mentioning the T-50 for a long time. But I don't really know how it compares to the F-35 and other jets.
According to the news I've seen, the battle for Daraa is over, and the SAA reached its goal, the Naseeb crossing. But they still have ISIS positions around Quneitra to deal with. Maybe they could bus the ISIS fighters there to Idlib so they can help kill other regime rivals like the HTS, lol.
On some other board there was a report that Turkish troops are beginning to pull out. I don't doubt the SAA will attack Idlib next, maybe by September(?).
July 8, 2018
I have some news for ya :
https://twitter.com/egygreenfly?lang=en
https://egyptdefreview.wordpress.com/
The articles will explain why the insurgency is still going on for 7 years now.
Regarding the MIG-21 that fell in the water - the only way to be sure is to do a scan in the entire region for fallen aircrafts. Most likely the truth is somewhere between.
https://twitter.com/EgyGreenfly/status/973245759859642368
https://twitter.com/EgyGreenfly/status/972735419413606402
Thanks for the links! It's depressing to read about poor army equipment and training. This reminds me of the war in Yemen...But they've made progress in Sinai. And the problems are nothing new. They've been dealt with before. Prior to the '73 war the Egyptians made a lot of progress in building a capable force.
I knew the EAF would want more Rafales than the 24 it's getting. It's great to see them acquire state of the art tech, like the MICA. Who is it supposed to be used against--Sinai Province? Lol.
Btw the SAA has finally secured Daraa. I hear they'll go after Idlib in September.
July 15, 2018
https://twitter.com/EgyGreenfly/status/969195018933145600
Reminds me of what an American instructor told his men in Vietnam "Don't bunch up!" If the guys are too close together it makes it easy to pick them off with a few bombs or bursts.
But these shortcomings have a redeeming feature. (Hopefully!) The poor quality of training, causing crummy infantrymen, has been exposed in the Sinai operations, essentially the first time Egyptians have fought since 1973 (Of course they battled Libya in '77 and were in the gulf in '91 but neither involved much fighting for long.) If the Egyptians want a military that can actually accomplish something, the Sinai experience (like the '67 war) should serve as a wake up call.
Unfortunately, history shows improvement is far from certain as the Yemen experience didn't spur improvement by '67.
July 15, 2018
Gonna send you soon a link from the same dude/dudes/dudette regarding US interfering with France selling us Stand off missiles - luckily we managed to get 30 of them. LETS REVERSE ENGINEER THEM! Oh who am I kidding...current regime will probably sell them for a pack of donuts or something.
You could probably find it - somewhere in his long long list of twitter posts lol.
Anyways, some people state that the riflemen plus even the thunderbolt would be lax when taking photos but I highly doubt it. It would be cooler to be "operator pro" than acting all clumsy.
According to him the nearest thing to Western SOF is the Naval Spec Ops brigade. BTW, just in case you didnt know, people are expecting imminent collapse of Egypt within 2-5 years max.
Reverse engineering the missiles would be great! Just like the MICA they're hardly intended to fight Sinai rebels....I wonder what sort of missions the Naval Spec Ops brigade is trained to do.
The collapse of Egypt is imminent, within 2-5 years max!!?? Collapse due to what--surely not ISIS? (lol.) Collapse due to overpopulation and bankruptcy?
July 15, 2018
https://twitter.com/EgyGreenfly/status/992050227069800450
Actually ISIS do play a minor role as the war is draining our already drained liquidity. Inflation is skyrocketing, water is mostly unsuitable for drinking, healthcare is getting worse by the day, private civilian owned businesses closing its doors while military owned businesses are booming as they are literally get into the production of every possible consumer good out there and having a monopoly on construction projects which Sissi claimed would take civilian companies far far longer to accomplish.
Just recently there was a protest against the spike in tickets' prices for the Metros. It was violently crushed by the police and several arrested.
The Dam being constructed by Ethiopia will causes disasters with River Nile's levels go down and we will have to buy water from private (military) owned desalination plants .
Unfortunately I believe Egypt might end up in a scenario that is somewhat similar to Syria's or at least share some common features; mainly being destroyed inside out.
ISIS Sinai training camp found
https://twitter.com/EgyGreenfly/status/985034889509601281
I had heard about the military becoming involved in the civilian economy but I didn't know it was THAT extensive. No wonder training is neglected when the focus is on profit. The situation does look like a recipe for an uprising but there's a key difference: The Syrian rebels had weapons supplied by KSA etc. What outside powers would back an Egyptian revolt? Or maybe common soldiers will desert to rebel leaders with their weapons like in Syria(?)
On another forum an Egyptian guy favored a military strike to destroy the Ethiopian dam. If most water is already unsuitable for drinking, I can imagine how much worse things will get when much of the flow is stopped downstream. Maybe THAT would spark an uprising. Seeking to prevent it, the government may take drastic action. Egypt's desalination plants can't really replace lost Nile water can they?
July 16, 2018
Btw I assume the army located and neutralized that training camp(?) I don't suppose ISIS revealed it or let journalists there....
I wonder if there are camps in the Giddi or Mitla. The passes have caves for hiding stuff.
July 16, 2018
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-economy/egypt-hikes-2017-18-economic-growth-forecast-to-5-3-5-5-percent-idUSKBN1F20EA
https://www.reuters.com/article/egypt-election-economy/egypt-economy-stabliises-under-sisi-but-prices-remain-to-be-tamed-idUSL8N1R825X
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/egypt-economy-military/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-economy/egypt-hikes-fuel-prices-in-imf-backed-austerity-drive-idUSKBN1JC06A
^^In chronological order, civil war is far fetched right now and the nature of Egyptians differ greatly from their more aggressive brethren in Syria and the Levant in general. yes it is a captured training camp.
BTW, things are getting worse - here is something fresh for ya :
https://twitter.com/EgyGreenfly/status/1018901211100180481
Actually, the military launched a large campaign a year or two ago against Jabal El halal mountain which is in central Sinai. It was notorious for being a hub for all kinds of criminals from arms dealers to smugglers. As well as Hamas' cooperation along the border had affected the movement and smuggling of manpower and materiel.
ISIS' attacks are no where near what they used to be back in 2013-2015. Although they had some success so to say against the EAF (armed forces) as of now around 100 AFAIK confirmed KIA due to the 2018 offensive (that ended almost as quick as it began) .
Even for their media releases they use pictures and video scenes from previous operations most of the time.
BTW, did you know that Shazly in an interview with him by Aljazeera said that Egypt's casualties in North Yemen around 1000 KIA only!!!! He views the North Yemen civil war in positive light!!
From my research, I found that there is quite a disparity between the number of casualties stated by different sources; going : 1000 , 5000, 20,000 and 25,000!
BTW, I believe that the Sinai insurgency would bring SLIGHT improvement but nowhere near enough to recognize it as an actual serious development and revision of modus operandi.
I quote the glorious Egy Greenfly " This quote is from several years ago. Troops deployed to the Sinai now get a certain amount of pre-deployment training but it still falls well short of adequate. Monthly range time does not equal prepared or competent infantrymen. "
the quote he is refering to : “We ran, we did pushups, all kinds of exercises,” Hamada said. “But I never touched a gun. I’ve never touched a gun in my life.”
Egy Greenfly: However, this wouldn’t stop Hamada and his platoon from being called into battle.
You also have this going on now more frequently IMO :
https://twitter.com/EgyGreenfly/status/997025808148398081
So the Sinai rebel state is practically beaten? I hope in a few years the armed forces can retrain for conventional operations. Hard to believe that as recently as 1996 there was a big Badr maneuver, which identified Israel as the enemy. "Horas" participated in that. Maybe there can be another Badr in 2023, IF Egypt is still fairly stable. :)
Pollack wrote that Egypt lost 26,000 men in Yemen (I'm recalling that from memory, I didn't consult the book.) I wonder to what degree performance in 1967 would've improved had there been no Yemen quagmire, and the men were engaged in Sinai maneuvers.
One book I have, RECONSTRUCTING A SHATTERED EGYPTIAN ARMY, mentions many faults of the army which was in Yemen. The recent shortcomings reminded me of that.
Btw I just read about a setback the SAA suffered in its latest push toward the Golan. It was minor though.
July 17, 2018
Even before that they lost quite a number of T-72 tanks due to ATGMs as they recklessly charged towards what used to be rebel held side of Daraa town - I am pretty sure you saw the pictures.
I honestly dont think our casualties would have been THAT many and Nasser still went with poking Israel. Thats almost the same number of casualties we suffered from '67 if not slightly more!
On the other hand, you have Combat Group 39 which its commander was a veteran of the civil war - there is even a super rare video of him checking a captured location from the Houthis and holding mortar shells that was found.
As Egy greenfly and Kenneth Pollack said - Egyptian Command prefers to kill its way out of the problem.
Fortunately, unlike Yemen, the media tool ISIS is using to spread its propaganda and humiliate the EAF, in my opinion, is the main key reason for instigating improvement no matter how humble it is.
Check his latest article regarding Sinai- June 16 -2018
https://egyptdefreview.wordpress.com/2018/06/16/sinai-new-tricks-old-habits/
It looks like the Egyptian armed forces in Sinai made the same mistake they did in Yemen--alienating the locals with "heavy handed" tactics. But they have one thing in their favor: The "Sinai province" doesn't get the kind of outside backing the Yemen rebels got--from the West, KSA etc. The decline in quantity and quality of IEDs shows progress has been made, albeit at too high a cost.
The reported loss of 26,000 men does seem excessive, but the difference between Yemen and the '67 war is that the former lasted 5 years. And there was pretty heavy fighting, in 1963, 1965 and later.
Yes, ironically ISIS propaganda, like Israeli boasting, spurs to EAF to improve.
SAA setbacks have been serious at times, but haven't prevented many recent gains. They may recover the area near occupied Golan by month's end. And then on to Idlib...Maybe they'll get more T-90s to replace those T-72s.
July 17, 2018
Spoke to Egy defense personally- a hint- he knows you, and you know him ....and me (to my shock)
Anyways I will inform you later on with new changes occurring in Egypt (military). I am a bit stressed out because of the work environment.
Sure, they can replace the T-72s but the crews seem to be almost as bad as they were in the beginning of the civil war.
What pains me greatly is how the Jihadi Salafists hijacked the revolution and turned it from the whole Oppressed VS Tyrannical Regime into a Sectarian conflict.
The Bashar regime will be hailed as heroes and his bloody deeds will be washed away.
I believe that the towns that recently surrendered did that out of necessity and not really favoring Bashar. The militant groups squabbling with each other and appear to be completely incompetent when it comes to administration and hundreds died due to inter rebel war.
I remember an incident back in 2015 a Syrian rebel was shot for raising the revolutionary flag (the pre baathist flag) just because the Islamist rebel saw it as blasphemy, which lead to a short conflict...one of many that would come after.
Regarding Yemen, sure, 5 years of fighting have taken a toll but If we did lose that many troops I am sure Nasser would be going around taunting Israel. 26,000 Casualties would surely hurt the army.
Its ironic how Britain and Egypt fought over Yemen and in the end both left it. At least the Republic endured (a miracle I would say) and it was lifted out of the dark ages due to the Imamates Draconian rule.
Still though, the number of ISIS militants that were killed (going with conservative statistics) is mind boggling at least. They had enough numbers to the point they tried back in 2014/15 to take over El Arish (it fell temporarily in their control) before losing it due to a counter offensive launched by the army and air strikes.
So Egy defense knows you and me...from where? The old Iran defense board, Egypt subforum? I remember Qweasdi1 and Gomig but I suppose Egy is somebody else.
Today I heard that on July 1, two Syrian Major Generals, and another general, were killed by a rebel mortar attack in SW Syria. The guy who posted the link mourned the officers but criticized them for getting in harm's way. I think the announcement was delayed to avoid harming Syrian morale while the fighting was still in full swing. Aided by Russian airstrikes, the SAA can still win despite its great loss. It has reportedly broken into the ISIS pocket along the Jordanian and Israeli border.
A Syrian guy says that fighting among rebel groups in Idlib has left 8,000 dead! It seems they are doing the SAA's work themselves.
I didn't know the Sinai rebels once took El Arish.
Lately Hamas has found a new way to strike at Israel--send over incendiary kites to set fire to forests and farmland.
I look forward to any info you can provide on changes to Egypt's military.
July 22, 2018
My bad - it was Sheikh Zuwaied
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2015_Sinai_clashes
https://twitter.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/1020414563538415616
LOL
Egyptian forces performed pretty well in that battle. The police station held out and they made good use of airpower, including Apaches. Even if the Egyptian army lost 64 dead (instead of the admitted 21) they killed about four times as many militants. The difference between ISIS in Sinai and other places like Syria and Iraq is that in Sinai it couldn't really hold territory.
I see btw that the Second Army is still deployed in the northern area of the canal, near Ismailia. An old legacy of '73.:)
July 23, 2018
In ARAB MIGS Volume 4, there is an account of a victory won by MIG-19s in June 1967. Four EAF pilots, Shalash, Darwish, Selim and Sidki, flew their MIG-19s into Sinai to ambush an Israeli Nortatlas transport escorted by Mirages. Shalash shot down one Mirage, them another, while Selim got a Noratlas. The remaining Israeli fighters then engaged the MIG-19s in a dogfight. Shalash and Darwish were shot down but so was a third Mirage. Sidki got back to base near Cairo but Selim, low on fuel, was killed while making an emergency landing at Fayid. He crashed into an SU-7 which had been abandoned there. The final score was EAF 4 kills, IAF 2--we shouldn't count the loss of Selim.
I'm sure I had read about this before, since I've had volume 4 for some time. I must have forgotten. :( I don't think it was mentioned in wiki either....
July 26, 2018
What did Sedki do during the battle though? Sounds like he was the only one that didnt get a kill and returned back in one piece. BTW, I am just engaged in office politics thats why I have been MIA for a bit. Anyways, the Egy Defense guy is actually FROGMAN! Dun dun dun...
I am trying to find ARAB MIGS online and other books related to 73, I feel like history might repeat itself sooner than we think.
The SAA moved (according to unconfirmed news) 3000 troops/militias to the Idlib front. While HTS claims to have apprehended a government cell that was carrying out sabotage, kidnapping and assassination acts. Still though, 3 rebels (unknown faction) were killed today in Idlib.
I wonder how things would have turned out if it wasnt for the Wahhabi influence and the interference of Al Qaeda in the civil war. If something similar happens in Egypt then any Wahhabist militant movement should be crushed with extreme prejudice. In fact, all movements that emerge independently should either join the main "revolution body" or be crushed.
I wonder if after Idlib falls if the SAA would be willing to face the Turks. I highly doubt it and the Rus would possibly stop them from escalating things. Turkish army is relatively fresh, better equipped and have gained some degree of combat experience (mainly special forces and tankers). Also, they have quite a number of Syrian cannon fodder that they can throw at the SAA.
What does the Israeli sources say about that air battle though?
So the Egy Defense guy is Frogman. Gomig used to call him "froggie."
The account of the air action, on June 7, 1967, is in page 29 of ARAB MIGS Volume 4. The four MIG-19s were from No. 20 "Araba" squadron. Shalash had a tape recording of radio transmissions during the battle. This became the basis for a documentary on Egyptian TV. (A link to a youtube vid on it appears in the book but doesn't work....)
I just reread the account. The Mirages weren't escorting just one Noratlas but two or more. Of the three Mirages claimed shot down, Shalash got two. Who got the third isn't indicated. It could've been Darwish or Sidki.
I didn't see any Israeli version of the air battle in the book. Since it took place over Sinai, on June 7, it probably occurred over their lines. They could've recovered the wreckage and hushed up the affair. I don't know what the transports were being used for, but if they were over Sinai, they'd have to have a base to land on, maybe El Arish(?) or even Gafgafa.
According to reports I've seen, the SAA has made a lot a progress shrinking the ISIS pocket near Golan, so maybe they're confident enough to begin moving forces to Idlib. But another report said the rebels are planning a counterattack in northern areas, so the SAA might need reinforcements there.
I don't think the SAA will fight the Turks either. There has been negotiation between Assad and the Kurds, which might settle matters in the north.
July 29, 2018
Another set of unconfirmed news that a new "merger" is happening in Idlib with a force of roughly 70,000 combatants! SAA will have a bloody nose after this one even if they do win...actually it wont have a nose because it was bloodied long time ago lol.
I wonder what the "new syria" would be like? Most likely more tyrannical than ever before.
Reminds me of the Hunger Games, when some districts rebelled and got blown up to smithereens. Since then things just got worse for the rest if not most of the other districts.
A "merger" wouldn't be surprising, since the rebels must be bracing themselves for an attack. The Idlib operation is supposed to start in September. No doubt, it will begin with an intense bombing campaign. To a considerable degree, air strikes will "soften up" rebel positions before the SAA moves in.
We'll see how it goes. It may be essentially just a repeat of recent battles in Ghouta and elsewhere.
I don't know how tyrannical the post civil war Syria will be. Some say had Assad acted ruthlessly at the start, he could've nipped the rebels in the bud and avoided the civil war. But I don't know... The regime may have to make concessions to regain the allegiance (or at least cooperation) of sunnis and kurds.
July 29, 2018
It looks like the Vol. 4 is the only book I have which mentions the mission against transports and Mirages.
The book on Israeli Mirage and Nesher aces mentions only two Mirages downed on June 7, 1967. One was over Iraq, the other was (supposedly) downed by an Egyptian SAM-2. I doubt the latter is true.
ARAB MIG-19 AND MIG-21 UNITS IN COMBAT has a number of accounts of MIG-19s in action during the '67 war. There is a report of an air battle over the Bitter lakes on June 6, in which two MIG-19s were lost. Two were downed in another action that day. Four MIG-19s led by Alaa Barakat attacked Israeli tanks on June 7th. Later that day the jets withdrew to Cairo International to join MIG-19s already there. No mention was made of a mission against Noratlas transports, but interestingly, "the IDF/AF admitted losing two jets in air combat on the 7th..."
The version of events in that book are outdated, since Shalash "corrected Barakat's errors" and had the tape recording.
Btw it appears I was wrong to assume the Israelis needed a base for their transports since they dropped supplies.
July 29, 2018
CORRECTION: I misread the account....On June 7, 1967, the MIG-19s led by Shalash got TWO Mirages, not three and TWO Noratlas transports. First Shalash shot down a Mirage, then Selim downed a transport, then Shalash shot down a second Noratlas. Soon afterwards, one of the Egyptian pilots got a second Mirage, while Shalash and Darwish were downed. So the score is still EAF (or UARAF) 4, IAF 2.
The MIG-19 pilots should have concentrated on shooting down the Mirages first. It made no sense to down two unarmed transports when they could have used the element of surprise to down more Israeli fighters. The transports could wait, the Mirages could not. I guess the Egyptian airmen were so eager to shoot down anything Israeli they didn’t think of this....
July 30, 2018
Post a Comment
<< Home