Saturday, November 05, 2016

The Martyrdom of Defense Minister Badawi










Badawi

On March 2, 1981, fourteen Egyptian officers perished in a helicopter crash. Among the dead was the Defense Minister, Ahmed Badawi. The aircrew survived but Badawi, nine major generals, one brigadier general and three colonels lost their lives. The tragedy was officially called an accident. In reality it was a purge, aimed at wiping out all vestiges of opposition to Sadat.
There appears to have been some confusion, or obfuscation, about the cause of the "accident." Reports said that soon after takeoff, the helicopter hit "an iron barrier" or "lamp post," or that its rear became "tangled in wire." Those actually present, however, blamed the machine, not some obstruction. The pilot claimed the copter's engine suddenly lost power. A survivor heard an officer cry out "there's something wrong with this plane!"
There were ample grounds for suspicion. Why was the Defense Minister and so many officers on the same aircraft? How could the pilot blunder into an electric wire (or lamp post) in broad daylight? The pilot, who told a version at odds with the official one, was shot at his apartment a few months later. He was probably slain for failing to keep quiet.
Determined that Egypt adhere to his new policy toward Israel, Sadat sought to purge officers who might challenge it. Foremost among them was Badawy.
Born in Alexandria in 1927, Badawi studied at the Frunze Academy, and in 1958 became a senior lecturer in Egypt. He participated in all of Cairo's wars with the Jewish state, and was a hero of the Ramadan conflict.
In 1973, Badawi commanded Egypt's 7th Infantry division. Throughout the war, he distinguished himself. Early on October 7, after the 7th had crossed into Sinai, Israeli armor counterattacked. Egyptian tanks fared poorly but Badawy, undaunted, moved his infantry against the flank of the enemy. Soon, the Israelis withdrew with heavy losses. The next day, the 8th, one of Israel's foremost generals, Sharon, led a division of IDF reserves against the 7th. The result was a little known but major Israeli defeat. It was even worse than the setback near Firdan that day. Sharon was repulsed and lost forty tanks. Several days later, Badawi attempted to outflank Israeli forces near the Giddi pass. His tactics were in marked contrast to the frontal attacks of other arabs. Badawy was the division commander most respected by the enemy.
Even after the disastrous encirclement of the Third Army bridgehead, Badawi proved his worth. He was given command of the entire force stranded on the east bank i.e. the 19th infantry division besides the 7th, and other forces. Keeping this force intact under the most trying circumstances testified to Badawi's dedication and skill.
Badawi's performance led to his promotion after the war. On May 14, 1980, he became Egypt's Defense Minister. It was not an auspicious time for a dedicated patriot, however.
Under Sadat, Egypt had embarked on a course totally different from the one Badawi and his colleagues could relate to. After his flight to Jerusalem in 1977, Sadat soon negotiated a peace deal with Israel. Committed to his new course, Sadat felt the military was no longer so vital, and should be downgraded and sidelined. Inevitably, this caused friction with those who thought otherwise.
In an address to Parliament some time before his death, Badawi made controversial remarks. Peace, he insisted, "should not lead to any change in the nature or mission of the Armed Forces."
After Badawy's demise, Alwy Hafez, a member of Parliament and close friend of the deceased, accused Sadat and Mubarak of murdering him and his 13 colleagues. Badawy was killed, Hafez thought, because he threatened to expose corrupt arms deals with Washington. Marginalization of the military had led to nefarious activity.
Just two weeks before his fatal crash, Badawi confronted Sadat about the corruption but the President ignored him. Sadat said more purges were needed to keep the military loyal. Infuriated, Badawi refused, saying that the men Sadat wanted removed were Egypt's best officers. According to Hafez, the Defense Minister soon concluded that Sadat must be overthrown. Assuming Badawi expressed this view only to his closest friends, the President probably never heard of it. Badawi's fate, however, was sealed.
Unable to induce Badawi to carry out a purge, Sadat did it himself. With the ruthlessness and cunning of Stalin, he decimated his general staff. In view of the potential threat posed by Badawy and his colleagues, it wasn't enough to fire them. They were to be slain. Evidently, two weeks was enough time for Sadat and his henchmen to plot the murders. The President ordered Badawi and the others to Siwa, ostensibly to review exercises. He had a sabotaged copter ready for them, or saboteurs among the maintanence staff. Sadat was almost certainly responsible for getting all fourteen officers into the copter. Only the President had the authority to order them all in. He probably claimed he needed as much professional opinion as possible, so they should all go on the "inspection tour." A cover story and a eulogy were readied in advance....
For many years, Badawi had faithfully served his country, often at great personal risk. He prevented the disintegration of the Third Army at the start of the war and for months afterwards. Israel's vaunted war machine couldn't kill him. What ultimately proved fatal was his integrity--when Sadat was in power. Not satisfied with ignoring his generals, Sadat had many of them dismissed, exiled, even murdered. Badawy's death was referred to as a martyrdom, and that's exactly what it was.

35 Comments:

Blogger Neal said...

Sadat definitely committed a wrong by having Badawi murdered. As we know, Sadat was later assassinated in 1981. I remember when it happened; I was not far away from it. On that day I was working in the Air Force Detachment 11 Tuslog Communications Center in Izmir, Turkey. When the message came in over the teletype, I was not astonished. Sadat had become unpopular with some Egyptians (and other Arabs) for some of his policies, for example, making peace with Israel. Having Badawi killed did not help Sadat's situation.

12:51 PM  
Blogger starman said...

Yes indeed, in fact the Egyptian public was angered by the deaths of Badawy and others. As I posted, there was plenty of reason to doubt the official version. Plenty of people saw through it and surmised that Badawi, a hero of '73, had been murdered. I'm glad you mentioned the assassination of Sadat. I was considering revising the post to include something about Sadat getting a taste of his own medicine.

1:37 PM  
Blogger Adham said...

I didnt do my research yet on the matter (Finance exam after tomorrow and had managerial accounting exam yesterday) but I remember my father (who was in his early 20s back then) saying the official government statement that the chopper hit a street lamp and he does believe Badawy was killed as well.

Contrary to what the government media spread out, Sadat's killers were a combination of nationalists and islamists while nationalists being the majority. Ironically, one of the killers was related to the commander of the doomed Egyptian 25th armored brigade.

Speaking about high grade karma right there.

6:33 AM  
Blogger starman said...

In my revision this morning I compared Sadat to Stalin, killing his generals to secure his position. Notice the different versions concerning how the helicopter was allegedly lost. The claim that it hit a lamp post isn't consistent with its rear getting caught in an electrical wire. That definitely sounds like an evolving cover story not a real account. Isn't it also suspicious that the crash occurred so soon after Badawy's argument with Sadat, and that the pilot (who told a story which differed from the official version) was shot not long afterwards?
I never knew one of Sadat's killers was related to the commander of the 25th. Did he actually mention the October 17, 1973 disaster as his motive for killing the President?

8:10 AM  
Anonymous Neal Robbins said...

As we know, Trump has been elected president of the U.S. He is likely to pursue a pro-Israeli policy, which would spell problems for relations between the U.S. and Middle Eastern countries, including Egypt.

10:15 AM  
Blogger starman said...

First, on topic :)
I wonder if or when the truth about Badawi's death will ever be officially disclosed. Of course it was bound to remain secret during the 30 year Mubarak era. Mubarak was Sadat's close associate before he became his successor. Any disclosure of Sadat's misdeed might've reflected poorly on him. But why wasn't there any revelation after the Arab Spring of 2011? Morsi opposed Mubarak so why didn't HE reveal the truth? If there were any extant documents to reveal, Morsi might've felt them irrelevant since his enemy Mubarak had already fallen and probably wasn't directly involved in the March '81 affair.
Of course it can be argued that the Egyptian people knew the truth from the start and Sadat's death settled the matter. It would be interesting, though, to see actual proof Sadat was behind the death of Badawi and 13 of his colleagues. And how he planned the murders with various henchmen. Perhaps the Defense Minister and 13 others were sent to Siwa because its remoteness hindered investigation.
Neal, I was shocked when I turned on the radio at 5 A.M. this morning and heard that Trump had beat Hillary. Just a few weeks ago, Trump seemed as good as beaten, his campaign wracked by scandal and defection. Some pundits gave him a 12% chance of winning. Much as I dislike Trump, he sure won an amazing victory.
I don't know what policies Trump will pursue in the Mideast. It's likely, though, his carelessness and recklessness will get him and the US into some kind of trouble.
November 9, 2016

11:01 AM  
Blogger Adham said...

Sorry for the late commentary, just got my free time break now.

Anyways, first regarding the assassination part, I asked my father again and he mentioned the co pilot also surviving (he didnt tell me the pilot (perhaps co pilot as well?) was shot). He also said that the helicopter fell from an extremely low distance (as low as a street lamp as he claimed) and somehow the pilot and co managed to jump out? Secondly, according to him it was reported that there was a sandstorm by the authorities and he denied it saying the weather was perfect on that day.

Regarding Morsi, with all respect to Badawi but there were more important things at hand to deal with like a growing economic crisis, internal multi party disputes and trying to cooperate with the military council which of course backfired at him. If he had purged the military council he wouldnt been thrown in a prison like he is in now and aimed the barrel of guns at the media to stop them from trying to rile up the crowds against his government.

Revealing Badawi's real cause of death is the last thing on the priority list but actually; the media for a short while argued whether Mubarak had anything to do with the assassination of Sadat or not.

12:56 PM  
Blogger starman said...

I knew there were survivors among the aircrew besides the pilot. The copter fell from an extremely low altitude? Less than ten meters? Did your father, or his sources, mention the helicopter bursting into flames when it hit the ground? It's strange that not one of the fourteen senior officers survived if it came down from an "extremely low" altitude.
I saw a video of the aftermath of the crash. I'm not sure if it was taken immediately after the crash but the sky was clear and blue.
I see your point about Morsi's priorities but I wonder if it could've helped if he had let the military know how Sadat--and by extension Mubarak and the rest of the "old regime"--had been willing to sacrifice officers to establish themselves, and their agenda.
November 13, 2016

3:06 AM  
Blogger Adham said...

He didnt tell me about the helicopter bursting up in flames actually. Besides I am pretty sure the military knows all about it given that there is a wave of assassinations going through the army as we had the commander of the 4th armored division killed in front of his house a month ago followed by some other high ranks in the following and previous weeks.

9:40 AM  
Blogger starman said...

I heard about the assassination of Brig. General Adel Ragai, who commanded the 9th Armored Division. Gunmen linked to Islamic State are thought to have targeted him because of his recent service in northern Sinai, where he played a role in the destruction of tunnels between Egypt and Gaza. In view of continuing rebel activities the military has more pressing concerns than the events of c 36 years ago.
By the way, I believe the 9th Armored Division was created a year or two after the October war. A news story around 1975 said "Egypt now has three full tank divisions, compared to two in 1973." I assume the third division, or 9th, was created due to the experience of the war, when Egypt lacked sufficient reserves to stop Israeli advances toward Suez.

November 19, 2016

10:34 AM  
Anonymous progrev said...

Very interesting all but I would particularly like to go back to a comment by sleepingduringduty regarding Egypt's economic crisis. Do you have any idea for how Egypt and other countries could go about solving this problem (which, as you may know, is global with 5 of the world's 7.5 billion people living in poverty--and most of the rich countries also suffering from stagnant economies)? (I write as one who has long been interested in this problem, my Master's thesis way back in 1977 was on a plan for solving it, which was ignored by millions sad to say :( .)

3:52 PM  
Blogger starman said...

Good to see you back, progrev. :)
No doubt part of the problem, since 2011, has been loss of tourist revenue because of internal strife. But the main issue is economic growth can barely keep up with population growth. In less than 50 years, Egypt's population has tripled, from roughly 30 million in the early '70s to around 90 million now. I recall around 1980, Sadat's wife, Jehan, wanted drastic action to stop the population explosion but Sadat, who was aware of the problem, said in effect there was nothing he could do about it.
Oh btw, despite the need to focus on the urgent problems of the present, should should be an expose of the deaths of Badawi and the others. Generally, historians have glossed over Sadat's misdeeds as well as his failings.
November 23, 2016

2:56 AM  
Blogger Adham said...

I will comment very soon but my double major exams are six day warring me right now into a panic attack..


stay tuned!

10:45 AM  
Blogger Adham said...

Sorry for the inactivity but I have a treat for you Starman.


https://youtu.be/vhZlYQFQ3pA?list=FLDvhMfL6qf_agn0Fm2nSLOw

Egyptian L 29s as I think attacking israeli tanks in the dervosoir gap .

2:58 AM  
Blogger starman said...

Thanks for sharing(!) and best of luck with your exams. I'm considering writing a new alternate scenario post. Stay tuned. :)

4:14 AM  
Blogger starman said...

I just wrote the post. :) What do you all think of my latest alternate history scenario?

November 25, 2016

6:27 AM  
Blogger Adham said...

I read it Starman and I have some commentary I will add later (Plus exams now I have cold and my lungs arent feeling really good) but lemme reply back to Progev.


First of all Egypt is currently drowning itself to the point it is reach the economy of post WW1 Germany right after treaty of Versailles . You think I am exaggerating? There is a shortage of bloody sugar and the military is literally confiscating sugar from factories and sells it as subsidized product. Sisi's decision of to float the Egyptian currency backfired big time as expected. Ethiopia announced several days ago that it arrested Egyptians trying to incite violent riots against the government which of course means it will continue to build the dam if its not already finished or continue with other projects that will reduce the Egypt's share of the Nile and in certain southern areas in Egypt the River's volume notably decreased to an alarming level. Ethiopia has previously accused Egypt of supporting the rebels their as well.

Plus leads add the loans taken from the IMF + other organizations and states= that is quite one big debt.

http://www.reuters.com/article/egypt-debt-idUSL8N0ZM2QD20150706

Oh and Sisi currently is half done building what is called "The new administration Capital of Egypt" which is practically a new city...what income will it bring? Most likely nill. Just like with the new extension of the canal that saw millions of dollars go down the drain.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/08/egypt-suez-canal-expansion-project-anniversary-revenue.html

Lets not forget the attrition of the Egyptian armed forces in Sinai almost on a daily basis and it wont stop anytime soon. So not just did Sisi destroy the economy with his decisions (yes the floating of currency was an executive order) but declared war on an armed populace and gave many locals to join extremist groups such as the Emirate of Sinai ISIS branch that is flourishing even with the arrest and killing of leaders and members there are more from the local SUPPORTIVE populace filling in the gaps and Egypt is following the whole "we are 90 million conscripts you cannot kill all of us" strategy. Since 2013's coup we had no less than 2000+ KIA in Sinai.

Anyways to DIRECTLY answer your question. I disagree with Starman for once on the whole controlling population because there was already propaganda and tv advertisements for it since the Mubarak era and perhaps from Sadat's era but we can assume it wasnt effective. What is possible though is to use low level tier tech to produce low tier tech consumer products for the local and african market and compete with China...easier said than done but with the population boost comes production boost. Sinai is SCREAMING to be actually developed and this is a chance (that we had since.....forever?) to actually colonize Sinai on a full scale . With soo much untapped resources we will need hands to dig out (semi literally if you know what I mean). This will also help reduce the slum issues that we never heard of back in the 80s till the most probably med 90s.

Sorry for saying this but F*** Tourism. Tourism is the bane and curse of Egypt. No country that aims to be strong regional power can rely on tourism. Secondary industry is the way to progress, innovation and scientific development and productive hands and not some russian tourists coming to take pictures near Tut-I dont give a damn-Mun statue or mummified corpse.

Okay thats enough for now time for my pills.

9:14 AM  
Blogger starman said...

What might Egypt do about Ethiopia depriving it of water? Send an ultimatum? And then if necessary, initiate hostilities?
Of course a nation aspiring to be a major power (if only regionally) can't rely on just tourism. But it seems Egypt now needs all the income it can get. If there was more tourist revenue, Cairo would have more to invest in development.
Competing with China for a local even African market may be difficult but Egypt has one advantage--nearness--you don't have to ship goods anywhere near as far. I'd imagine its labor is cheap too.:)
Besides some oil, what resources does Sinai have? From what I recall, the Israelis didn't find much, other than the oilfields they took over. Also, does Sinai have water to support fullscale colonization? Assuming there's water, why not colonize the western desert?
I just edited the alternate scenario post again; look forward to your comments!

10:45 AM  
Blogger Adham said...

http://www.nato.int/science/studies_and_projects/nato_funded/pdf/982614.pdf

To be continued.....

11:24 AM  
Anonymous progrev said...

thanks to both of you for interesting comments on my economic question and I am in a rush today but hope to get back to you soon very interesting!

3:34 PM  
Blogger starman said...

"Flash-flood-recharged-alluvial aquifers" --interesting. But that study was supposed to be completed seven years ago, in January 2010. I guess the ongoing violence hindered either completion, or implementation of any project based on it.

November 27, 2016

3:24 AM  
Blogger Adham said...

FRESH BREAD JUST RIGHT OUT OF THE BAKERY!

Now tell me he isnt really an agent for the tel aviv....I dare you..I double dare you


https://www.middleeastobserver.org/2016/11/28/al-sisi-builds-6-huge-tunnels-between-sinai-and-israel-for-nile-water-transfer/

So ironic how we were speaking about water resource for Sinai.....talk to you soon, thats if I dont off myself.

12:50 PM  
Blogger starman said...

The article says of the 6 tunnels, one is for a railway and three for cars; the purpose of the others wasn't indicated. Sisi would be crazy to send Nile water to Israel. Egypt's population needs all the water they have, especially if Ethiopia reduces the flow. And Israel has desalination plants.
If the plan is to ship water why build tunnels? Pipelines would do. In fact why build tunnels at all, for a railway or cars? Maybe Israel should be a bit worried, since tunnels would enable Egypt to send troops and supplies into Sinai with less risk of air interdiction.
It's interesting that Egyptian public opinion is still hostile to Israel. Nearly four decades of peace doesn't seem to have changed much, at least not on the popular level.

November 30, 2016

3:15 AM  
Anonymous progrev said...

Thanks again for your comments on Egypt's economic issues and I generally agree with both sdd if I may use that abbreviation and Starman. First, I think industrialization is most important although actually agriculture must get the highest priority, with the key being water and it is tragic that war could break out over the water problem--let me sum it up by noting that Egypt like Ethiopia and most Arabic, Islamic, and poor countries needs enormous infusion of capital and what is tragic is that that will not be forthcoming and war will result I am afraid because as sdd noted you already are heavily indebted to IMF in spite of the fact that its loans, however essential, have been far short of what is needed. What is really needed is enormous foreign aid--grants, not loans--from the rich countries, and they as you probably know will not be providing it because they have no money to offer (US has already got $19 trillion national debt and rising rapidly) because they are severely undertaxing their rich and corporations. Here in the US I am trying to fight for raising their taxes but getting nowhere with it of course because they control the government. I am afraid sdd was so right to compare Egypt's current condition with that of Germany after WW I with results that are well known, catastrophic and I believe similarly that WW III is coming soon, in fact it may already be underway in spots like Mosul. Germany found itself with 25% unemployment and no solution except through war.
So for Egypt anyhow, if you could get the money (even if only through war), I think first you should build huge desalinization plants to make the water you need to massively expand your agriculture. Then you will want to industrialize and sdd makes an important point about avoiding too high technology because you need to employ human workers rather than machines wherever possible even though that will be far more expensive, which again is why you need that huge infusion of capital. Starman is pragmatic in advocating boosting tourism for the capital you need, but I am afraid that again the basic problem can't be solved by pragmatism or capitalism IMO.
I do believe that someday the war will end and the world can get onto a path of peace and prosperity for all, and then Egypt will at last rightly be a huge attraction for tourists...really in the long run I am very optimistic

5:21 PM  
Blogger starman said...

Interesting comment progrev. I have some questions and comments, though:
How can Egypt get more money through war? By clobbering Ethiopia to ensure there's no reduction in Nile water? Or maybe taking over Libya with its oil production? :) Egypt should get big grants, and rich gulf arabs should provide them.
You mentioned huge desalination plants. Assume such plants were built. What do they do with the salt after separating it from the water--dump it back into the sea? I wonder what effect that might have on the Mediterranean, if desalination became much more extensive. I heard the Mediterranean is already among the saltiest bodies on water on Earth. Increasing the salinity further might prove inimical to sea life and ruin fisheries.
I don't know if it will be feasible, in coming years, to employ human workers instead of machines. The robot/automation revolution is getting underway. People won't even be needed to drive anymore. Autonomous or self driving cars will soon be here.


December 1, 2016

3:10 AM  
Anonymous progrev said...

I am thinking of Egypt's position now as being parallel to Germany's in the 1930s, where Hitler's goal was to obtain lebensraum--that is, the equivalent of money, namely, wealth, specifically, land for Germany's farmers to work. In Egypt's case now, it could be territory for farming, or water or oil, or factories, perhaps. All such wealth is already owned by other countries--as was the lebensraum Hitler sought, which is why it can only be obtained through war; or it could better be obtained through the generosity of the other counties, but unfortunately the other countries are not so generous although, back to Hitler's analogy, the USSR could have afforded to let Hitler take some land, but it would have required sacrifices by Russians, Ukrainians, etc.; in fact the US ought to have helped out--just like we ought to have allowed the Jews to immigrate to prevent the Holocaust, but my hero FDR was not so kind. Precisely because people in general are not so kind, generous, wise, etc., the world is as you say "overpopulated" and they can only solve their problems thru war. Like Germany, only even more so, Egypt would have to form a great alliance. Perhaps the entire Islamic world, or the African continent, would have to unite to beat back other countries, such as Europe and India, that now possess the land, capital, and resources they need to develop. It is similar to the way the US and Europe developed by plundering the lands, people (slaves) and resources of Africa and the Americas; in other words, it is tragic and catastrophic but ultimately some good will come out of it I am optimistic. What is perhaps most strange and remarkable is how Germany went on to prosper after the war, despite having lost it. I could speculate a lot about that if you are interested.
Interesting question about what to do with all the salt, I hadn't thought about that. Might dump it in the Dead Sea pops to mind as one possibility, would that work do you suppose?
It will be feasible to employ people instead of machines if we have enough money--which we need to get by taxing the rich and corporations as you've probably gotten tired of hearing me say--I am coining a new word for them--the R & C, or "arrancie"--rhymes with the bourgeoisie! How do you like that? :) One thing I read recently that really makes me mad is that they are planning to use robots to do the initial work of preparing a base on Mars for human pioneers to come later...all that prep work should be done by humans, even though that will be more expensive it is worth it because it is the kind of work people want to do.

4:37 PM  
Blogger starman said...

In theory, Egypt could expand at the expense of Libya and Sudan, to get oil revenues and arable land respectively. I've noted, though, that while chaos in Libya, and even ISIS there, has given Egypt a pretext to intervene and take the oil wealth, Cairo never seemed interested in doing so.
I think it's most likely Israel will acquire more lebensraum soon, at the expense of the Palestinians. Far right politicians like Lieberman may expel the Palestinians from the West Bank and take their remaining land. You've seen my scenario on an eventual Israeli "final solution" on the West Bank.
The Dead Sea is dead anyway, and practically dried up, so it would be better to dump salt there than ruin Mediterranean ecosystems. Egypt is mostly desert so there must be someplace, maybe some wadi somewhere, where they can dump salt.
Robots have the advantage of not needing life support systems, and being able to work in an irradiated and cold environment, so it makes sense to send them to Mars first, to build the requisite infrastructure for humans. Pressurized domes would be an example.

December 2, 2016

2:43 AM  
Blogger Emmanuel Ansu said...

Isn't it about time people focused on the latest post here?

3:43 AM  
Blogger starman said...

If people want to continue to comment on this thread--or any--that's fine, though indeed it would be nice to see some more comments to the most recent post.

December 2, 2016

4:57 AM  
Blogger Adham said...

Hey I am sorry to add an extra post here, exams are at hands and I will comment soon on the alternate scenario post Starman and I would need a lot of time to write my long post for it.

Back to what Progrev and you said; Egypt is in no way similar to Germany under the rise of Adolf Hitler because there is no Hitler in Egypt or someone with Hitler's sense of nationalism. You are having a tin pot dictator who is basically a mercenary. If you haven't heard he backstabbed Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab countries that supported him and switched sides to join Putin's camp! Then when Trump won he was the first to give his allegiance to Trump.
Sisi has Nasser's authoritative totalitarian tyrannical style of leadership but none of Nasser's ambition of becoming the leading nation in the region. Plus I heavily believe his an agent because of things like this.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/09/22/egypt-thousands-evicted-sinai-demolitions

Which started since 2013....who is benefiting from all of that? BTW there is a video of him in a meeting with military officers Pre- coup saying that the military shouldnt ...key word= SHOULDNT involve itself in the war on terrorism and using violence to solve the problem will only inflate it. He also said that the only solution to the terrorism in Sinai is by reaching out to the people living there and improving their living standards; civil projects and so on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxuqNOcBX98

excuse the propaganda directing of this video buts its the only one I found for his speech with subtitles. The military action scenes is after coup and his speech is pre coup.

I have seen the entire unedited speech. Why is he doing the CLEAR EXACT opposite of what he said we shouldnt do?!

Can someone explain? Anyone?

To be continued with the whole Libyan and Sudan lebensraum.

1:59 PM  
Blogger starman said...

So Sisi is a shameless opportunist. If China ever eclipses Russia he'd vow allegiance to Beijing.
Naturally officials claimed the demolitions were carried out to prevent ISIS from getting weapons from Gaza. That's a great propaganda line for western consumption...In fact the reason was to prevent Hamas from getting weapons via the Egyptian border. I guess Sisi wants to avoid further conflict between Israel and Hamas, which might lead to pressure to dump the treaty--which he doesn't want to do considering that the arabs are militarily at their nadir vis a vis Israel. He may be right to be cautious, but demolishing homes was the wrong way to go about it.
Why did Sisi say there shouldn't be a violent solution to Sinai terrorism and then opt for such a solution? He may have feigned being a man of peace initially to reduce opposition to his 2013 coup, but once he was in power, he could do anything...
I look forward to further comments, when you have time, on this thread and the alternate scenario one. :)
December 3, 2016

3:12 AM  
Anonymous progrev said...

My theory about Sisi would be that before the coup he could say what he believed, but once he found himself in power, he had to conform to the ruling class of the world, the West and its allies, just to stay in power and forestall complete economic collapse--so I think there really is hope for him still IF and WHEN the global Westernized economy DOES collapse. Then, with no hope available from that group anymore, he will be free to--and will HAVE to--find salvation for his rule and for Egypt, the Arab countries, and the Islamic world as a whole, through nationalism and a larger nationalism including the international Arab and Islamic masses. But until the world economy does collapse, there can indeed be no Egyptian Hitler because as long as possible, the large majority of the people do not want war. Tragically, it is the only way out of their predicament IMO maybe I am wrong. I look forward to seeing more commentary from sdd and Starman both hopefully and will then try to get to Starman's most recent post

3:56 PM  
Blogger starman said...

Hi progrev. Sisi might've bent to the will of the US, which expected him to do his part in the "war on terror" (in other words resort to a military solution). But relations with Washington deteriorated because of his 2013 coup; the US cut off military aid. I don't know if Sisi would've acted at US behest under the circumstances.
You and I have been predicting a major economic meltdown for decades. But I don't think it's imminent. In any case, Sisi already has been turning to other nations besides the US, like Saudi Arabia and Russia, for aid and arms respectively.
It seems a majority of Egyptians have a low opinion of Israel. Many probably don't have a problem with war in principle. It's just not feasible now. Generally, war is anything but a solution to economic trouble. Besides the destruction, it can exacerbate inflation. I suppose it might work if it had an economic objective like Libyan oil.
December 4, 2016

2:59 AM  
Anonymous progrev said...

Hi Starman--while waiting for sdd's response, regarding what could have turned Sisi around, I was thinking also about such examples as Hubert Humphrey and Tony Blair, who at some point seemed to be and probably really were progressives--and then they collapsed and supported their country's rotten wars, and just now I am thinking about Mussolini, too, who got off to a great start in Italy, boosting the economy, creating jobs, and then he too crashed and burned by getting involved in unjust wars. I never could understand Humphrey, I really had thought he was a good guy. Perhaps though whatever it was that turned him also worked on Sisi and he's lost hopeless as sdd seems to believe.
I still have hopes for the economic meltdown, probably will never give up on that because I just have to have some slight hope in order to go on living :(
War is a solution because it creates vast numbers of jobs for the unemployed. WW II in that way, for the most dramatic example in history, was what propelled the US out of the Great Depression into the Golden Age of 1945-75. It also however did require a bunch of other policies to really reap such rewards, namely, that the gov't used rationing and wage, price, and rent controls--otherwise the merchants and labor unions and landlords would have reaped all the benefits and there would not have been such a great 30-year postwar boom. Few other governments, I'm afraid, would have had the wisdom to control inflation like that, so in that sense a war fought by most of them in the Mideast, etc., might not solve the economic problem and yet I do think also that the Napoleonic wars were the basis for European prosperity and the spreading of the Industrial Revolution because as I said, war does create millions of jobs for the poor even if inflation does roar out of control.
PS did you hear the great news, Germany now has a working nuclear fusion plant!
Also on the internet today was a story maybe you could answer some questions about because in 2005 a nuclear sub crashed into a seamount that was not on the maps; they survived due to well-designed preparation and disaster-prevention measures. But I wondered (1) how in heck could a seamount not have been on the maps in 2005 and how many other square miles of ocean floor topography are uncharted? And (2) how could their sonar or radar not have detected the seamount before they crashed into it?
And now to get back to a previous comment, don't be misled by the costs of things, most of the best things are actually expensive and the colonization of Mars is a great example, even though robots would be cheaper, since humans want to do that work, we should let that be the way for it to be done. Of course it might also actually pay for itself because there are millions of millionaires who would eagerly pay millions of dollars for the privilege of building the Mars base. Another example is that here in LA the voters by 76% majority voted to support a $1.2 billion bond to build housing for the homeless, which is great except of course it's far short of what is needed but at least LA can now say that we are doing our share in what is actually a national problem requiring massive federal action to create affordable housing, jobs, etc., while under Obama and all them the fed'l gov't is just abandoning all its obligations they don't care. But the point I wanted to make is that ideally the homeless themselves ought to be given the chance to work on building this housing. But alas they won't, you know, because the unions and all will take all the jobs...so infuriating. Yes, it would cost more to train homeless people, but it would be so much better, well worth the extra cost in human terms.

4:46 PM  
Blogger starman said...

Hi progrev. Did you see the latest comments in the Alternate Mideast Scenario thread?
I don't know if Mussolini and Humphrey are good analogies for Sisi. Mussolini always wanted to be a hegemon in the tradition of Rome. He went after Ethiopia in the early '30s. As for Humphrey, he was never the President, and had to go along with LBJ.
War wouldn't have the same economic benefits in the Mideast because most states there aren't industrial. They rely on imported arms not locally manufactured ones. (At least that's true for most of their world class, "big ticket" arms.)
Germany now has a working nuclear fusion plant??!! WOW!! That's fantastic news. Can you provide more details? Is it actually providing electricity to customers?
The main problem with humans doing the initial work on Mars is life support. Besides oxygen, and adequate warmth, humans would need shelter from the start because of cosmic rays. It may be best to have robots build the infrastructure needed for human survival first.
I'm not sure if homeless people could be taught sufficient construction and engineering skills. Even among the employed, not everybody is good at that. It's probably best to let the pros handle construction.

December 7, 2016

3:17 AM  

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