Hafez Assad's failings
Bashir Assad now appears all but certain to survive the turmoil in Syria. Nevertheless, he'll be seriously weakened. Ironically, this scenario may not bode well for Israel.
An isolated, weakened Assad may be more dependent than ever on Iran for support, giving Tehran more influence over Syrian policy. Seeking to end that influence, the Saudis have bankrolled the opposition. But that aid was too little too late.
The roots of Syria's woes go back to the time of Bashir's father, Hafez Assad. Soon after assuming power in 1970, Assad could've ensured the recapture of the Golan and made his country independent of foreigners ever since.
Assad made two critical mistakes. In 1972, during clashes with Israel, Damascus sent its tanks into action. This only served to forewarn Israel of the potential for a major Syrian offensive and, to help thwart it, the Israelis built an antitank ditch and other defenses. These greatly worsened the odds faced by Syria in 1973. To make matters worse, the Syrians began massing armored forces near Golan several weeks before the October 6 attack. Again, the result was to induce Israel to bolster its defenses, in this case by sending the elite 7th armored brigade to the Golan.
Two egregious errors--armored probes in 1972 and a premature deployment in 1973--meant the attackers had to deal with 100 additional tanks, plus an antitank ditch and firing platforms. Had the Syrians not committed armor in 1972, they would've had a much easier time breaking through a year later. Had they waited until October 1973 to mass forces, they'd have faced just the understrength barak brigade with 71 tanks (vs 5-600 in just their initial wave). Under such favorable conditions, the Syrians could've swept into Golan with relative ease, and overrun the whole area with minimal losses. Like the Egyptians in Sinai, they would've been able to deploy masses of antitank weapons prior to the arrival of Israeli reserves. Israel would've been stymied, probably for the rest of the war, given the limited room for maneuver.
A few simple precautions would've regained all of Syria's lost land. Instead, Assad's blunders led to the slaughter of his attacking forces, the failure to regain much and the utter dependence on foreigners (Russians and Iranians).
Wrecked Syrian armor in 1973. Bashir Assad's current woes stem from the errors of his father over four decades ago.
Wrecked Syrian armor in 1973. Bashir Assad's current woes stem from the errors of his father over four decades ago.
posted by starman at 10:06 AM
2 Comments:
Bashar Assad is obviously going to depend on Iran to a considerable extent. Iran's position has grown strong. The Shiites in Iraq now call the shots in that country. Overthrow of Saddam Hussein by American forces broke the Sunnite hold on the government in Iraq. The Shiites in Iraq are supporting close ties with Iran, which is predominantly Shiite. Assad is bordered by two Shiite controlled countries and will be subject to their influence.
Neal Robbins
ok this is interesting history and a lesson on military strategy at the highest policy level. That's great but I would like you to think more about how we might work for a better outcome in the Mideast.
I had been thinking about going to Chicago in May, when NATO will be meeting there, and joining in mass protests to demand that they, and the US particularly, get the H--- out of there, the Persian Gulf, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yemen where they are already getting in deeper and deeper, and all, all so rotten and stupid.
But that by itself won't really make things much better over there and I have a lot of ideas that would but that would seem to go way beyond your points in this post?
Roger
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