Crisis in Egypt
Since late January, massive demonstrations have taken place at Tahrir square in Cairo and elsewhere in Egypt. Members of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Egyptian groups are clamoring for President Hosni Mubarak to step down after 30 years of rule. Mubarak, however, has so far refused to give up power. The demonstrations continue unabated and violent clashes have broken out between anti-Mubarak elements and a smaller number of Mubarak supporters.
It is hard to predict how this will be resolved. The longer the stalemate continues, the greater the possibility that the military will end it. Long a supporter of the President, the army has refused to crush the demonstrators. There is little point in using force to maintain a leader who has been delegitimized and will soon have to leave anyway due to old age. Since Mubarak is not worth backing and his opponents are adament that he go, the Egyptian generals may have no choice but to overthrow him. If military men do this, they will no doubt say their coup is a prelude to fair elections. But a new strongman may be too tempted to retain power to keep his word.
Right now, one can only speculate on what this may mean for Egypt-Israel peace, or US-Egypt relations. It seems likely, however, that both will deteriorate, inasmuch as they are closely identified with the discredited Mubarak regime. To demonstrate a break with the past, and hence gain legitimacy, any new government will likely change Egyptian policy. If a new government is headed by a military leader, he may even challenge Israel if necessary to divert attention from his failure to hold free elections or improve living standards.
No new Egyptian leader is likely to initiate hostilities against Israel. Nevertheless, a new regime, more responsive to the popular will, may see tensions rise abruptly and dangerously. Whereas Mubarak was supine in the face of Israeli assaults, henceforth Cairo may take meaningful action. Further Israeli campaigns against the Palestinians or Lebanon may lead to a freeze in relations, or even abrogation of the 1979 peace treaty. Although neither the Egyptian masses nor a new government will want war, they may find themselves falling down a slippery slope toward renewed confrontation. Even modest steps away from the peace treaty may trigger a new arms race and a possible Israeli preemptive attack.
posted by starman at 3:19 AM
12 Comments:
It is likely that there will be a military regime in Egypt. In order to maintain political stability in Egypt, the new regime will need to avoid being attacked by religious extremist organizations. In order to prevent terrorist attacks from those groups, the new govenment will probably break ties with Israel. It would be extremely difficult to concentrate on improving the economy if terrorist groups were to make attacks on a large scale basis.
Neal Robbins
I don't think any Egyptian leader would change current policy just to appease al-qaida (there are few Islamic extremists in Egypt itself). A military regime could control them. But such a regime, or even one headed by El Baradei, might alter Egyptian policy just to gain legitimacy by breaking with the past.
A regime change would probably not result in an immediate confrontation between Egypt and Israel. However, the upcoming new leadership in Israel might eventually revoke the peace treaty. Attacks by Israel would cause a big dilemma for the U.S. Any Israel strikes (especially very destructive ones)would cause a huge surge in anti-Americanism in the Middle East, especially if the U.S. continues to supportt Israel. A wave of terrorist attacks could occur. If Israel ever uses nuclear weapons, the results would be catastrophic.
Neal Robbins
Now that the Egyptian masses have discovered that they have the power to topple governments, no new leader can last long unless he can meet the people's needs for jobs and opportunities. But there is no peaceful way that any leader or party can do that--because it would require vast new economic aid from the US, Europe, etc. The rich countries are not going to be providing any such aid on the needed scale, which would be $5-10 billion a year (by contrast with the present level of $250 million a year).
Therefore I can see nothing but instabiity and eventually war coming out of this situation. Israel should flee.
Roger
Thanks very much guys for your input. Isn't it remarkable how stubborn Mubarak has been? He says he needs to continue in power to prevent chaos. There has been near-chaos already, thanks to him.
As we know, Mubarak decided to hand power over to the military. It is obvious that the Egyptian military are now calling the shots. It will be interesting to see if they decide to have elections in which civilian candidates will run for office. Of course, there is the possibility that a general or a set of generals will rule Egypt for a while. Getting Egypt's economy in order is a major priority. The US will certainly want to have favorable relations with whatever leader is chosen. It is advantageous for America to have allies in the Middle East.
Neal Robbins
So Mubarak is finally gone! And his son Gamal won't be replacing him, lol. The Egyptian Revolution of 2011 has succeeded but I don't think democracy will win out for long if at all.
Roger, aren't you excited by the success of a popular revolution like this? IMO it's only a matter of time before some of the gulf monarchies succumb to popular pressure for change. If the royal establishments make concessions to quiet people but then annul or block progress, that'll lead to a violent revolution.
The uprising in Egypt has apparently produced a chain reaction in the Middle East. The Shiites in Bahrain have staged a large scale protest that has been met with severe force. The government of Bahrain has long been accused of human rights violations, both under the present ruler, Sheikh Hamad bin Isa Khalifa, and under his father who preceded him. Ian Henderson was chief of security for quite a while. Henderson retired in 1998, but repression has continued. Iran would like to see a Shiite government in power in Bahrain.
Neal Robbins
Neal, did you hear the latest? It now looks like Ghadafy of Libya could be ousted. Protesters have taken over Benghazi and are rising up in Tripoli. After over 40 years, it looks like Ghadafy may go. I remember him since his coup in September 1969; he became well-known as a radical in the early '70s, before the 1973 war. I don't think he'll be a great loss for the arabs.
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Ghadafi has had a set of 40 female bodyguards. I'm sure that they will not be adequate for keeping Ghadafi in power. Several of his key officials deserted him. At least two of his air force pilots bailed out rather than bomb rebel forces. Some of his army personnel have deserted him. I will not be surprised if those forty good looking ladies in fatigues also join the list of deserters.
Lol, you're right about that Neal. Gadhafy was always an eccentric and now he looks like a fool. He's an old man of 68, who has just lost 70-90% of his country, and is still making defiant speeches. What's the use; it's clear he has lost.
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