Crisis in Egypt

Since late January, massive demonstrations have taken place at Tahrir square in Cairo and elsewhere in Egypt. Members of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Egyptian groups are clamoring for President Hosni Mubarak to step down after 30 years of rule. Mubarak, however, has so far refused to give up power. The demonstrations continue unabated and violent clashes have broken out between anti-Mubarak elements and a smaller number of Mubarak supporters.

It is hard to predict how this will be resolved. The longer the stalemate continues, the greater the possibility that the military will end it. Long a supporter of the President, the army has refused to crush the demonstrators. There is little point in using force to maintain a leader who has been delegitimized and will soon have to leave anyway due to old age. Since Mubarak is not worth backing and his opponents are adament that he go, the Egyptian generals may have no choice but to overthrow him. If military men do this, they will no doubt say their coup is a prelude to fair elections. But a new strongman may be too tempted to retain power to keep his word.

Right now, one can only speculate on what this may mean for Egypt-Israel peace, or US-Egypt relations. It seems likely, however, that both will deteriorate, inasmuch as they are closely identified with the discredited Mubarak regime. To demonstrate a break with the past, and hence gain legitimacy, any new government will likely change Egyptian policy. If a new government is headed by a military leader, he may even challenge Israel if necessary to divert attention from his failure to hold free elections or improve living standards.

No new Egyptian leader is likely to initiate hostilities against Israel. Nevertheless, a new regime, more responsive to the popular will, may see tensions rise abruptly and dangerously. Whereas Mubarak was supine in the face of Israeli assaults, henceforth Cairo may take meaningful action. Further Israeli campaigns against the Palestinians or Lebanon may lead to a freeze in relations, or even abrogation of the 1979 peace treaty. Although neither the Egyptian masses nor a new government will want war, they may find themselves falling down a slippery slope toward renewed confrontation. Even modest steps away from the peace treaty may trigger a new arms race and a possible Israeli preemptive attack.

Buried Alive

This winter has been exceptionally severe in the Northeast. Temperatures have been well below normal for January, even plunging to -7. Snowfall, however, is the worst part. January 2011 was the snowiest month on record. Since xmass, Connecticut has received about 71" or six feet of snow, most falling on these dates:

December 27 13.9 inches.

January 7 6.6 inches.

January 12 24 inches.

January 18 3.5 inches.

January 21 5.6 inches.

January 27 12 inches.

February has brought no respite. Several more inches have fallen already. Meteorologist Joe Furey says the first two weeks of February will be as bad as last month. The record for snowfall set in 1996 may be broken. Because this winter is cold as well as snowy, there has been little melting, so the depth of accumulation keeps increasing. Already great mounds of snow are piled along roadsides and driveways, and it's poised to get even worse. It's remarkable that this can happen at a time of global warming. We can only hope that a compensatory warm spell will finally melt the accumulation in time for spring.